Posts by Chris Ward
Quarterly Perspectives 1Q26
Equity markets retreated in the first quarter as the sudden eruption of hostilities with Iran injected new geopolitical risk into the outlook. Fixed income investments faced volatility from rising interest rates as higher fuel prices reduced the expectations for monetary easing. Many major foreign nations are dependent on energy imports and will be vulnerable to…
Read MoreU.S. vs. China: Technological Rivalry
The U.S. and China, while commercially interdependent as the world’s two largest economies, are locked in a high-stakes technological rivalry. The nations have spent the last two decades economically intertwined but are in the process of decoupling as their national interests are increasingly less aligned. The competition for industrial sovereignty has only heightened with the…
Read MoreQuarterly Perspectives 4Q25
Global markets defied a complex backdrop in 2025, delivering robust returns across both equity and fixed income investments. Shifting trade policies and geopolitical tension created volatility but were ultimately outweighed by corporate earnings strength and lower interest rates. While high equity valuations, persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty remain areas to monitor, the global economy is…
Read MoreQuarterly Perspectives 3Q25
U.S. equities advanced during the third quarter and have registered above-average gains for the year, boosted by strong corporate earnings and prospects for monetary and fiscal stimulus. Fixed income investments also recorded positive returns for the quarter and year-to-date as interest rates fell for bonds of all maturities. The resilience that characterized the U.S. economy…
Read MoreGenAI: The Path Forward, Part 3 – Physical AI
The objective of this white paper series is to contemplate the path forward for generative artificial intelligence. Part 1 reviewed scaling laws, a critical factor that drives AI infrastructure investment. To-date, scaling laws remain firmly intact driven largely by test-time scaling—the foundation for the newly popular reasoning models—and AI infrastructure investment has not abated. Part…
Read MoreQuarterly Perspectives 2Q25
U.S. stock indices staged a forceful recovery in the second quarter following a sharp, but brief, correction in April triggered by trade policy developments. Fixed income investments recorded positive returns in a somewhat volatile period for interest rates as investors weighed the risks of higher inflation against those of softer economic data. Middle East tensions…
Read MoreGlobal Equity Primer
The U.S. economy benefits from distinct structural advantages compared with foreign economies. These include strong property rights and rule of law, a dynamic labor market, a robust consumption oriented economy, geopolitical stability and deep and liquid capital markets. Such characteristics have allowed the U.S. to attract talent and capital from around the world, incentivize research…
Read MoreQuarterly Perspectives 1Q25
U.S. stock indices declined in the first quarter strained by tariff uncertainty and a retrenchment in business and consumer confidence. Fixed income investments recorded positive returns as yields declined across maturities due to slowing growth and a flight to safety. Looking ahead, U.S. economic growth is likely to remain subdued while certain international regions may benefit from…
Read MoreGenAI: The Path Forward, Part 2 – AI ROI (“ROAI”)
The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has catalyzed a surge of capital expenditures (capex) directed at building out AI infrastructure. The “Big Four” hyperscalers (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet) are expected to spend over $300 billion on capex in 2025, up from $225 billion in 2024. A significant portion of this will be directed…
Read MoreQuarterly Perspectives 4Q24
Equity markets registered significant gains in 2024, underpinned by healthy economic growth in the U.S. Fixed income portfolios recorded modestly positive returns for the year, with yields falling for short maturity issues and rising for bonds of longer duration. Resilience of the U.S. economy defied widespread expectations of a slowdown, while many overseas economies struggled…
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